This document provides a non-technical overview of the research conducted for ONR-RRR-079. For this project, a methodology was developed for quantifying risks from joint extreme events. Specifically, a risk measure known as a ‘return curve’ was considered; this measure provides a robust and interpretable summary of jointly extreme events for combinations of environmental variables. Statistical techniques for estimating return curves are presented, alongside practical methods for evaluating uncertainty and goodness-of-fit.
See also
Lancaster University subsequently developed a statistical modelling package that enables non-statisticians to undertake checks and sensitivity analyses using the formulae developed by RRR-079.